Galaxy Digital trims CLARITY Act odds as Senate clock runs thin

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, revised the firm’s outlook downward from 60% after concluding that the Senate’s limited calendar has become the most significant barrier to success. Despite constructive staff-level negotiations, the absence of a unified text or a confirmed voting schedule has signaled a stall in momentum. Polymarket traders reflect this growing skepticism, currently pricing the likelihood of the bill’s enactment at just 41%.

Competition for floor time has intensified as lawmakers juggle the National Defense Authorization Act and FISA legislation, alongside demands linked to President Donald Trump’s support for the SAVE Act. Representative Anna Paulina Luna’s recent protest against the extended Senate recess further complicates the timeline, leaving only a narrow window before the August break. While Senator Cynthia Lummis anticipates a text release around July 4, Galaxy maintains that a firm leadership commitment to a July vote is required to restore confidence in the legislation's path to the president’s desk.