Bitcoin fell on 92% of steepest U.S. stock-market days since 2022

Sentora’s Nov. 13 research compared Bitcoin and Ether returns with U.S. stock indices from May 2018 through November 2026. In the full sample, the firm identified 107 sessions in the S&P 500’s worst-performing 5%, each with a loss of at least 1.74%. Bitcoin fell on 81% of those days and Ether on 79%; on ordinary market days, each declined about 49% of the time.

The post-2022 analysis used its own worst-5% threshold, covering 61 sessions. Bitcoin fell on 92% of them and Ether on 95%. Sentora’s average correlations over the full period were lower: 0.29 for Bitcoin and 0.31 for Ether. Both were slightly negative in 2018–19 and reached roughly 0.50 in 2026.

During the Nov. 5 selloff, the S&P 500 fell 4.4% and the Nasdaq-100 lost 6.4%. Bitcoin dropped 5% and Ether 7.2% over the same window. Sentora also found Ether underperformed Bitcoin on 79% of the post-2022 worst equity sessions. Median losses were 3.6% for Bitcoin and 5.6% for Ether. The ETH/BTC exchange rate had a median return of negative 1.52% on the worst equity days, compared with positive 0.67% on the best. Sentora said the pattern remained after March 2020 was excluded.

The research also found that U.S. cash-market hours accounted for a disproportionate share of crypto price variation. Since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, the 10 a.m.-to-close window represented 17.1% of observed hours but 33% of Bitcoin’s price variation and 30% of Ether’s. The study measured the timing of volatility; it did not establish that stock trading caused crypto moves.

In its weekly briefing, Sentora reported net exchange inflows of $3.09 billion for Bitcoin and $1.10 billion for Ether. It said such inflows can leave more coins available to trade but do not prove holders sold. Stablecoin supply fell $4.75 billion to $287.77 billion during the week, after declining daily for more than two weeks.