Coinbase Bitcoin premium negative for 51 days amid weak US demand

CoinGlass dates the negative run to Sept. 23. The latest reading is less negative than the dashboard’s 30-day average of −0.14%, but remains below its annual average of −0.06%. The index compares Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase’s BTC-USD market with its price on Binance’s BTC-USDT market, offering a gauge of US-market buying and selling pressure relative to global markets. Its one-year Z-score is −0.95, which CoinGlass classifies as within the normal range.

Separate indicators have also pointed to cautious demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded five consecutive outflow sessions through Nov. 11, shedding roughly $1.44 billion, according to figures previously reported by crypto.news. SoSoValue data cited in that coverage put Nov. 11 net withdrawals at $299.9 million. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust lost $269.73 million and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust $39.13 million, partly offset by $8.96 million in inflows to Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin Trust. Cumulative net inflows since the funds launched in January 2024 stood at $55.1 billion, while combined net assets were $93.7 billion.

Bitfinex analysts said on Nov. 11 that spot buying was weak as futures positions grew during Bitcoin’s decline. Open interest rose 3.3% to 701,900 BTC from Nov. 8 to Nov. 11, while the price fell 2.6%. After the US inflation release, open interest dropped only 0.2% despite about $729 million in liquidations; the analysts said traders appeared to be replacing closed positions quickly. They put the average purchase price for coins held fewer than 155 days at $75,717 and estimated that 1.6 million BTC bought between $75,000 and $80,000 was underwater.

Bitget Wallet Research said a sustained recovery would require positive ETF flows and more balanced derivatives positioning. In comments published Nov. 10, CoinShares managing director Marc des Ligneris said options skew had risen again, indicating investors were paying more to hedge against downside. Exchange pricing, ETF flows and derivatives data measure different activity; none identifies every investor’s motives.