Five prediction market platforms with different trading models

Kalshi is a US-based exchange registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market. It offers event contracts across politics, economics, finance, sports, culture and climate. Contracts generally trade from $0 to $1, with prices reflecting traders’ implied probabilities; published rules set out how outcomes are determined.

Polymarket runs an international platform on Polygon, using USDC-backed collateral for peer-to-peer outcome shares. Winning shares settle at $1, while losing shares expire worthless. An oracle-based process determines results, with a challenge process possible in disputes. The service is restricted in some jurisdictions, so users should check availability where they live.

Probly combines event forecasts with short-duration crypto contracts. The project says it supports about 5,100 events and 47,000 markets, including 172 active live markets. Its crypto “Up or Down” contracts cover five-minute, 15-minute, one-hour and four-hour periods for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP. Probly says its TxFlow L1 infrastructure records activity and settlement on-chain, while its self-custodied USDC model leaves wallet funds under participants’ control. Automated price-source markets may settle immediately after resolution; manually adjudicated markets generally take longer.

Limitless, built on the Base network, also offers five-minute crypto “Up or Down” contracts alongside markets on sports, finance, politics and other events. It uses on-chain order books and automated liquidity mechanisms; Chainlink price data sets reference prices for the five-minute crypto markets. Correct outcomes pay $1 per share, while incorrect ones expire without payment. Positions can be sold before resolution when liquidity is available.

Manifold Markets takes a different route: users forecast with Mana, a virtual currency that cannot be directly converted to cash. Participants can create markets, discuss questions and track changing probabilities across topics including technology, science, politics and sports.

The platforms also differ in market coverage, fees, liquidity, resolution rules, geographic access and custody. A long list of markets does not guarantee enough trading activity to enter or exit at a desired price. Real-money contracts can lose the amount committed, plus applicable fees. This article is for educational purposes and is not investment advice.