Polymarket assigns 85% odds to a December Fed rate hike

The figures, checked Nov. 10, followed a report showing consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, while prices excluding food and energy increased 0.3%. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively. Headline inflation slowed from September’s 0.6% monthly rise, but both October readings came in 0.1 percentage point above forecasts.

Polymarket gave unchanged rates a 2.9% chance, with each rate-cut outcome below 1%. Trading volume was about $22.6 million. The quarter-point and larger-hike contracts represent separate outcomes: the 85% reading refers only to a 25-basis-point increase. Shares for that outcome were offered at 85 cents; the contract for a move of at least 50 basis points was offered at 12.7 cents. Winning shares redeem for $1, according to the market’s description.

A Wall Street Journal report at 13:53 UTC said CME pricing indicated roughly 90% odds of a quarter-point hike and 10% for a half-point move. Those figures came from a different time and are not a simultaneous comparison. A Reuters poll of 101 economists conducted Nov. 6–10 found all expected a quarter-point increase, which would take the target range to 4%–4.25%.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said in a Nov. 10 speech in London that he would support a quarter-point December hike even if October inflation improved. If monthly core CPI stayed around 0.3% or higher, he said, policymakers should consider a half-point move. The Fed’s scheduled meeting is Dec. 8–9, with an updated Summary of Economic Projections. The November CPI report is due Dec. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of October’s monthly headline increase; food prices rose 0.5% and energy prices 0.7%. The report did not include annual headline or core inflation rates because the October 2025 government shutdown interrupted collection of comparison data. Bitcoin traded at $74,540.70, down 0.2% over 24 hours and 3.9% over seven days, after ranging from $73,586.83 to $75,476.89.