Bitcoin could fall to $65,000 if support breaks, Hilbert CIO warns

Thompson said funds facing margin calls often sell assets that are not central to their portfolios, which can include Bitcoin. He described mounting pressure around the AI trade as “blood in the water.” He expects buyers to emerge below the current price, but sees a break of the trend line near $71,900 as a warning sign. Earlier support lies around $72,800 and $72,700, near the middle of April’s breakout range and moving averages. He sees little technical backing for $70,000 beyond its status as a round number. From $74,200, a fall to $71,900 would be about 3.1%; $65,000 would be a 12.4% decline.

Bitcoin’s rebound above $80,000 on Nov. 5 followed $74.6 million in U.S. spot ETF inflows and heavy short liquidations. The price returned to about $76,000 the next day as technology stocks fell and U.S. spot ETFs recorded $430.2 million in withdrawals. Thompson estimated withdrawals at $1.2 billion for the following week; separate weekly coverage cited Farside Investors data showing $1.28 billion out from Nov. 2–6.

Thompson believes some capital that moved from crypto into AI, chips and technology stocks could eventually return to digital assets, once deleveraging eases and markets settle. But he expects near-term selling to weigh on Bitcoin and said he has not ruled out a breakout before year-end. Options pricing reflects demand for protection against further declines: five-delta put implied volatility was 51, against 38 for at-the-money options, while comparable calls carried a one-point premium.

Hilbert’s five-factor liquidity model fell to 2.61 and its six-factor model to 3.02, from 3.23 and 3.27 in the firm’s Nov. 2 update. Thompson said readings below one indicate crisis liquidity and those above nine indicate abundant liquidity. He also cited market pricing of a 77% chance of a December Fed rate hike, with two hikes between then and next year the favored outcome. The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled October CPI data for Nov. 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. September inflation was 0.6% month over month and 3.7% annually; core prices rose 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively.