Bitwise Raises Bitcoin Price Target to $1.6 Million by 2036

The revised forecast, released on October 28, assumes that Bitcoin will capture 25% of a global store-of-value market shared with gold, which Bitwise expects to reach $109.8 trillion within the decade. This model anticipates significant penetration into national treasury reserves and corporate balance sheets, alongside a 1% to 5% allocation from institutional portfolios. Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan noted that the firm is more bullish today than a year ago, pointing to regulatory progress and the hardening demand for non-sovereign assets.

While the base case target sits at roughly $1.6 million, the firm’s model accounts for a range of outcomes, including a bull case of $3.6 million and a bear case of $130,686. Bitwise expects annualized returns of 34.3% over the ten-year period, significantly outpacing its estimates for U.S. equities and private equity. Despite this outlook, the report cautions that volatility will persist and identifies risks such as quantum computing advancements and potential regulatory reversals.

Market analysts remain focused on shorter-term signals as these long-term projections take hold. Jeff Ko, chief analyst at ViaBTC, characterized current trading as an accumulation phase despite some complacency in market positioning. While Bitcoin has shown strength by reclaiming its 50-week moving average, the broader crypto landscape remains mixed, with Ethereum continuing to face relative weakness and consistent outflows from spot ETFs.