Spiral warns Bitcoin is losing the race for everyday payments

The report, titled The Long Road to Bitcoin Payments, highlights a stark divide between technical capability and consumer behavior. While over one million U.S. merchants can accept Bitcoin via Square and Lightning Network integration has simplified significantly, spending remains stagnant. Spiral argues that the industry’s central problem is no longer infrastructure, but a lack of demand and clear incentives for users to spend their holdings rather than hoard them.

Stablecoins currently dominate the emerging landscape of machine-to-machine payments, where AI agents autonomously purchase computing resources or data. Data from the x402 protocol suggests that 99% of these automated transactions utilize USDC, as businesses favor the stability of dollar-pegged assets over Bitcoin’s inherent price volatility. This shift is compounded by U.S. tax regulations, which treat every Bitcoin transaction as a taxable property disposal, creating a significant barrier to entry for casual users.

Seeking to reverse this trend, Spiral has launched an open call for proposals to fundamentally shift Bitcoin’s adoption trajectory within five years. The group is urging developers to move beyond traditional checkout models and explore micropayments, rewards, and shared infrastructure that could support both Bitcoin and dollar-denominated transfers. For Dorsey, the stakes are existential: he has long maintained that if Bitcoin fails to serve as a functional daily currency, it risks becoming nothing more than digital gold.