The campaign against the measure, funded through a group called Building a Better California, represents one of the most expensive political efforts in state history. Its donor list includes prominent tech figures such as Sergey Brin, Eric Schmidt, Patrick Collison, and John Doerr. While spokesperson Abby Lunardini argues the tax would cripple the state’s economy and investment climate, others have broken ranks. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly preparing for the tax, and Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey recently confirmed he intends to stay in California despite his opposition to the proposal.
Economic projections regarding the initiative vary wildly. An analysis by the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests the tax could generate $104 billion, while a study from Hoover Institution economists Benjamin Jaros and Joshua Rauh estimates a significantly lower figure of $30 billion. Gabriel Zucman, who helped draft the original proposal, dismissed the latter study as fundamentally flawed for assuming billionaires would flee the state in response to a policy that has not yet been enacted.

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