Truflation Forecasts September US Inflation Rise to 3.6%

The October 9 report suggests that while energy costs remain the primary source of volatility, relief is emerging in other areas. Housing prices and grocery costs recorded monthly declines of 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. These downward pressures help offset rising expenses tied to tariffs and higher production inputs, which threaten to push goods inflation higher toward the end of the year.

Truflation’s outlook sits below the broader market consensus, which anticipates a headline rate of 3.7% and a core rate of 2.5%. The firm points to a combination of slowing payroll growth—down to 29,000 jobs—and a 4% annual pay growth rate as indicators that service-sector inflation may not accelerate despite elevated input costs. While businesses currently absorb some tariff-related expenses, analysts note that as inventory turns over, these costs may eventually reach retail shelves. For investors, the upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics data serves as a critical benchmark for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy ahead of the late October meeting.