Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard attributes the current breakout to a combination of renewed spot demand and a massive short squeeze rather than a purely macro-driven accumulation. Despite the upward trajectory, data from the Hyperliquid exchange shows that some of the largest participants remain net short, suggesting a lack of universal conviction in the recovery. This discrepancy creates a potential catalyst for further gains, as underexposed traders may be forced to enter the market if the advance continues.
Spot market signals provide additional confirmation of the trend. Jeff Ko, Chief Analyst at ViaBTC, notes that the Coinbase premium has turned positive, reflecting stronger buying interest from U.S. institutional investors. Furthermore, the USDT/USD exchange rate has moved closer to its dollar peg, indicating that the rally is supported by genuine demand rather than reliance on borrowed capital. However, market participants remain cautious; Nansen reports an uptick in Bitcoin moving onto exchanges, which could increase available supply if the momentum falters.
Looking ahead, the market faces critical tests at $87,000 and $90,000. Sustaining these levels depends heavily on consistent ETF inflows and stability in U.S. Treasury yields. While Bitcoin has shown resilience in the face of recent Federal Reserve rate hikes, the broader macro environment—characterized by firm dollar strength and fluctuating oil prices—continues to pose risks. Analysts are now monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data and Friday’s options expiry, which may introduce short-term volatility as investors recalibrate their positions.
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