BIS study exposes massive gaps in Bitcoin and stablecoin data

The study, titled Hidden by Complexity, analyzed 1.3 billion Bitcoin transactions spanning from 2009 to 2026. Researchers tested three distinct methodologies to account for the unspent transaction output (UTXO) model, where funds are frequently returned to the sender as change. By varying the treatment of these outputs—ranging from counting all outputs to filtering out identified self-transfers—the team found that monthly transfer volume estimates diverged by as much as 600%. The authors cautioned that commonly quoted figures often convey a false sense of precision, as mixers, CoinJoin transactions, and address reuse make it difficult to isolate genuine economic transfers.

Valuation models for Bitcoin’s supply face similar scrutiny. The research compared standard market capitalization—which applies the current price to all outstanding coins—against realized capitalization, which values outputs based on the price at their last movement. During periods of rapid price growth, traditional market cap surged to four times the realized value. The authors also noted that dormant coin metrics are unreliable; while 1.8 million BTC have not moved in over 15 years, data shows that nearly 3,000 BTC from that cohort have unexpectedly shifted, proving that inactivity does not confirm lost keys.

The complexity extends to Ethereum, where the researchers struggled to classify over 54 million of the 67.5 million contracts examined. Even within stablecoins, data patterns diverge significantly by network: USDT holdings in Ethereum smart contracts consistently exceeded 20% during peak DeFi activity, whereas Tron-based USDT remained near 1% for similar periods, suggesting distinct usage patterns between the two chains. The study concludes that analysts should abandon single-number metrics in favor of bounded ranges, a shift already being adopted by tools like the Visa Onchain Analytics dashboard, which filters out bot activity and internal bridge routing to isolate meaningful settlement volume.