Bitcoin Slides as Fed Rate Hike Odds Top 92%

The broader digital asset sector saw widespread losses on September 15, with total market value retracting to approximately $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin fell over 3%, struggling to maintain support levels as traders braced for the two-day FOMC meeting. A quarter-point increase would shift the Fed’s target range to 3.75%–4.00%, a move that major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley now view as a near-certainty to combat persistent inflation.

Rising borrowing costs present a dual challenge for crypto markets by increasing the expense of leveraged positions and offering more attractive yields on traditional Treasury securities. While National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett confirmed that President Donald Trump will respect the independent authority of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the administration has remained vocal about its opposition to further tightening ahead of the midterm elections.

Legislative and Market Uncertainty

Compounding the macroeconomic pressure, the U.S. Senate is set to hold a cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. While the vote is procedural—determining only whether to advance the legislation for debate—the outcome holds significant weight for the industry. The bill aims to delineate oversight authority between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a distinction that remains a primary point of contention for market participants. Crypto-linked equities, including Coinbase, Circle, and Robinhood, faced downward pressure as institutional investors weighed both the legislative path and the looming shift in monetary policy. Recent data showing $463 million in weekly outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs suggests that regulated investment vehicles are currently serving as a primary conduit for selling pressure.