Bitcoin dominates the upcoming settlement, accounting for $14.73 billion of the total notional value. With 186,000 contracts in play, the put-to-call ratio sits at 0.52. Market participants have concentrated their bullish bets on higher strikes, specifically around the $70,000, $85,000, and $90,000 levels. While the "max pain" point—the price at which the most options expire worthless—is calculated at $72,000, Bitcoin has recently traded near $78,000, keeping spot prices above this theoretical threshold.
Ethereum’s footprint remains smaller but active, representing $1.92 billion in notional value across 756,100 contracts. The largest concentration of call options is pinned at $3,000, while the asset's max pain level rests at $2,200. Trading around $2,510, Ethereum currently sits between these two key markers. Analysts caution that while call-heavy positioning often signals market optimism, these figures do not function as price guarantees, as many traders utilize these contracts for complex hedging and volatility strategies rather than simple directional bets.
The September 25 expiry arrives during a volatile window for macroeconomic policy. Traders are currently navigating a sequence of U.S. events, including a Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate announcement. With Treasury yields and spot ETF demand shifting market sentiment, the derivatives landscape shows significantly higher volume compared to the June quarterly event, which involved roughly $9.3 billion in Bitcoin options and $1.6 billion in Ethereum contracts.
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