Fidelity: August Bitcoin rally offers no guarantee of bear market exit

While Ethereum and Solana also posted significant gains, Fidelity’s fourth-quarter outlook suggests that historical patterns provide no certainty for the current cycle. Some analysts point to November 2026 as a potential market bottom, mirroring the four-year interval seen in 2022, yet the firm cautioned that historical cycles lack the precision to serve as reliable blueprints for price action.

Chris Kuiper, vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, noted that the transition from low volatility to rapid expansion often indicates seller exhaustion. However, the resilience of the market in the face of recent security incidents and legislative uncertainty does not confirm a bottom. Instead, the firm maintains that institutional adoption, monetary policy, and pending U.S. regulatory developments—such as the upcoming Senate procedural vote on the CLARITY Act and the SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal—will remain the primary catalysts for the market through the end of the year.