Russia’s regulated crypto market eyes $46 billion debut

Anatoly Popov, Deputy Chairman of Sberbank, expects the market to expand significantly, reaching 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029. These figures rely on conservative adoption rates, as the majority of local crypto transactions are expected to continue occurring outside the newly regulated sphere. The forecast is not a guaranteed target but rather an estimate of how much current volume might shift toward authorized intermediaries.

Starting September 1, 2026, the regulatory framework introduces strict barriers for retail participants. Non-qualified investors must pass knowledge assessments and face an annual purchase cap of 300,000 rubles per intermediary. While the Bank of Russia has signaled that Bitcoin, Ether, and USDT are the primary assets slated for organized trading, their availability remains contingent on specific intermediary offerings and final regulatory approval. Existing exchange providers have until July 2027 to finalize their registrations, a transition period that will likely limit the market's initial capacity. Sberbank itself intends to enter this space by December 2026, though specific operational details regarding custody and client eligibility remain under development.