Wealth Managers Bet on Gold’s Long-Term Ascent

UBS Global Wealth Management expects the price of gold to reach $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2027. The firm points to a combination of softening real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and sustained central bank purchasing as the primary catalysts for this growth. While high oil prices and hawkish Federal Reserve signals pose immediate risks, the structural outlook remains positive. UBS anticipates that as inflation moderates, the Fed will eventually resume monetary easing, further reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Institutional Shifts and Central Bank Support

Beyond UBS, other major players are adjusting their stances. Arun Sai, a senior multi-asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management, has upgraded gold to overweight, citing strengthening investor demand and the ongoing trend of emerging market central banks expanding their gold reserves. Central banks purchased 289 metric tons of gold in the second quarter alone, and annual buying is projected to hit between 750 and 1,000 metric tons. While consumer appetite for jewellery has cooled—dropping significantly in markets like China and India during early 2026—demand for gold bars and coins has reached record levels. Analysts suggest that any price pullbacks toward the $4,000 mark should be viewed as strategic entry points for investors looking to maintain a mid-single-digit allocation to the metal.