The cryptocurrency market is grappling with a shift in risk sentiment as tensions flare around the Strait of Hormuz. Following Trump’s threat to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges in retaliation for maritime attacks, global energy markets reacted sharply. Brent crude climbed to $95.24 on July 22, a move that directly complicates the Federal Reserve’s inflation-fighting mandate just days before the July 28–29 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
CME FedWatch data shows the probability of a July rate hike has jumped to 33.7%, up from 25.7% just 24 hours prior. This renewed hawkish outlook has stalled Bitcoin’s recent recovery. Technically, the asset is struggling to clear the Supertrend resistance level at $67,303. On-chain data from analyst Ali Charts highlights a significant hurdle at $69,340, which represents the short-term holder realized price—a level that has acted as a ceiling for every major rebound since November.
While buy orders are currently clustered between $64,500 and $65,500, the market remains fragile. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart have turned negative, and the lack of strong directional force, signaled by an ADX reading of 20.62, suggests that further volatility is likely until the market clears the $67,000 sell wall or tests support near the $64,000 channel floor.
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