Polymarket’s Geoblocks Fail to Deter U.S. Political Betting

Blockchain data suggests that U.S.-linked accounts remain the largest cohort for political betting, outpacing the next most active nations by a factor of four. While Polymarket officially lists the United States as a blocked jurisdiction—a policy rooted in a 2022 settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—researchers found that demand has simply migrated offshore. Allium Labs noted that while their analysis covered only 6% of wallets with verifiable country tags, the pattern of sustained U.S. participation is consistent.

Trading behavior from these wallets also deviates from the broader platform average. U.S.-linked accounts show a pronounced preference for markets tied to foreign conflicts, with nearly half of their top-volume trades focused on the war in Iran rather than domestic election outcomes. This trend aligns with independent findings from Rutgers statistician Harry Crane, who previously estimated that U.S.-based users may account for roughly 30% of Polymarket’s total trading volume.

These findings arrive as regulators, including the CFTC, weigh new rules to govern event contracts. With countries like Spain already moving to block prediction platforms over licensing concerns, Polymarket faces mounting pressure to justify its dual-model approach. The persistence of U.S. activity despite geoblocks complicates the platform's defense, raising questions about whether current location controls can withstand increased scrutiny from global authorities.