Bitcoin Surges Past $60K as Fed Chair Warsh Keeps Policy Options Open

Bitcoin traded near $60,175, marking a 3% bounce from intraday lows that had dipped below the $58,000 support level. The rally followed Warsh’s appearance at the ECB Forum, where he maintained his stance that the central bank will avoid forward guidance, choosing instead to react to incoming economic indicators. This approach mirrors his decision during the June FOMC meeting to hold rates steady, a move that prompted a sharp decline in digital assets at the time.

Market participants remain largely convinced that borrowing costs will hold firm through July. CME FedWatch data indicates a 70.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Despite this short-term optimism, long-term uncertainty persists. Polymarket bettors assign a 54% probability to a rate hike occurring before the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing anxiety that persistent inflation or shifts in the labor market could force the Fed's hand. Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that while rates may stay flat for the remainder of the year, the risk of tightening remains if economic data deviates from the 2% inflation target.