Citigroup reduced its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000, while the Ether forecast was cut to $2,240 from $3,175. This adjustment reflects a dramatic shift in the bank's modeling, which now projects net ETF inflows over the coming year at zero, down from an earlier estimate of $10 billion. These revisions follow a difficult June for spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows—the largest exodus since their January 2024 debut.
Regulatory roadblocks in the U.S. further complicate the outlook. The progress of the CLARITY Act has stalled amid ethics concerns surrounding President Donald Trump’s business interests, leaving institutional investors without the clear framework they once expected. Analysts at TD Cowen suggested that the path for this legislation remains precarious ahead of the November midterm elections. With potential selling pressure from corporate treasuries and a looming threat of recessionary conditions, Citigroup’s bear-case scenario places Bitcoin as low as $53,000, leaving market participants wary of further downside risk.
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